Facts About Jobs Before and Since Obama (September 2012 - Election Edition)

UPDATE (NOV 4 2012): October 2012 employment results were released on Friday 11/2/2012. The 170,000 jobs created exceeded expectations and are a sign of continued consistent recovery.

ORIGINAL POST (OCT 2012)

While GOP conspiracy theorists (like former General Electric CEO Jack Welch) embarrass themselves with baseless allegations that the White House somehow manipulated the numbers, President Obama spent the day touting the undeniably positive facts included in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

1. September saw 114,000 new jobs added, making it the 31st consecutive month of private sector job growth. 
2. The unemployment rate dropped dramatically from 8.1% to 7.8%, the lowest point in four years. (Notably, this month's decline was NOT due to workers who "gave up" and dropped out of the workforce.)
3. The economy has added 5.2 million jobs since March 2010.

Chart created by Steve Benen of Maddow Blog, using BLS numbers

A few months of consecutive private sector job growth might be luck, but thirty-one consecutive months of increases is an undeniable positive trend that is evidence of a steadily improving economy and the directional correctness of our nation's economic policy.

Romney and his GOP supporters can (and probably should) continue to key on the unacceptable pace of the economic recovery, but results like these take much of the sting out of any election season barbs they throw at the President.

In a November 2011 post, I said that Obama only needed continued consistent forward motion in U.S. labor results to re-secure his place in the White House for four more years. With this year's employment trends, which have been capped off nicely by September's significant reduction in the nation's unemployment rate, I stand by my prediction.

SNL's Fox & Friends on Mitt Romney

What do these things have in common?

• Angelina Jolie, Drew Barrymore, Tobey Maguire
• Microsoft
• Saturday Night Live 

They were all born in 1975.

Last weekend, SNL kicked off its 38th season. The show has had its peaks and valleys over the years, but as the "Fox & Friends Morning Show" parody below shows, Lorne Michaels and company still deliver the goods when it comes to political satire.

Romney's Gutless Foreign Policy Screw-Up

Mitt Romney's premature, inappropriate, and errant criticism of a statement issued by an American embassy outrages me.

Romney believed that the American embassy in Cairo had issued a a communication expressing regret for hurting "religious feelings of Muslims," after extremists attacked our consulates in Libya and Egypt on September 11.

The GOP nominee saw the embassy statement as a political opportunity to attack the President as a weak American apologist, and he pounced.

"I think it's a -- a terrible course for America to stand in apology for our values. That instead, when our grounds are being attacked, and being breached, that the first response to the United States must be outrage at the breach of the sovereignty of our nation."

Unfortunately, in his blatant eagerness to sound like a bad ass and score political points during a still unfolding foreign policy tragedy, Romney lacked many of the salient details.

First, Romney was wrong about when the embassy statement was issued. The original statement was not in fact a post-event apology, but was instead a communication issued prior to the attacks as a preemptive effort to quell a swelling undercurrent of anti-American sentiment that threatened to boil over.

Second, Romney was quick to criticize the Obama administration for the "apology," when the statement had actually been issued by a local diplomat, prior to any State Department or White House approval of the message.

The White House has subsequently issued a formal statement in response to the attacks and disavowed the original embassy message. Additionally, President Obama expressed empathy for the onsite diplomatic personnel, who crafted the original communication from a soon-to-be besieged embassy, rather than from the safety of a campaign office.

In the last two days, I've read numerous articles and accounts about this incident, and I was grateful to see politicians from across the spectrum express disappointment in Romney's poor judgment. Nonetheless, my anger over Romney's actions has become palpable.

Turn of Phrase - Paul Ryan Is Good For America

Paul Ryan, Republican VP nominee

"He’s what a Republican should be: an honest, open-minded, solution-oriented fiscal conservative."

- From Slate columnist William Saletan, who plans to vote for Obama but who appreciates the candid, legitimate, fiscally conservative voice that Paul Ryan brings to the political arena.

In an excellent Slate article this morning, Saletan rejoices at Romney's choice of Vice Presidential running mate, praising Ryan in large part because the GOP congressman from Wisconsin is obsessed with fiscal conservatism, rather than social conservatism, and for all the right reasons. 

Regardless of political loyalties, reasonable Americans agree that sustaining our current level of deficit-spending and debt-building is a losing strategy. 

While you might disagree with the difficult budget choices Ryan proposes (or "draconian measures" as Democrats would call them), you have to acknowledge that he brings a more educated, considered, and specific approach to solving our fiscal problems than almost any other national politician, most of whom simply spout unrealistic knee-jerk party-line rhetoric about tax cuts and national debt.

In his article, Saletan notes that Romney's selection of Ryan, a serious and focused politician, may also help to elevate our national discourse. 

"Unlike many of his colleagues, Ryan isn’t a wanker or a hater. He’s in it for solutions, not spite. 

Instead of bickering about Romney’s tax returns and repeating the obvious but unhelpful observation that the unemployment rate sucks, we’ll actually have to debate serious problems and solutions."

I know enough about Paul Ryan's beliefs and values to recognize that his addition to the ticket doesn't change my political affiliation, but like William Saletan, I'm excited about the possibility of an election that possesses the potential to re-focus Americans on critical issues and maybe even surfaces a solution or two.

Romney's "Next President" Gaffe

Oh, Mitt. Freudian slip? It's okay. We all get nervous when we get a new boss.

Oddly enough, President Obama made the same mistake, although with an immediate correction, during an introduction of Joe Biden in 2008. 

(Hat tip to Paul Gagne for the reminder.)

Turn of Phrase - A Purposeful President and His Policy-Free Opponent

"Has there ever been a campaign with so few major plans on the table?

President Obama’s proposals are small and medium-size retreads, while Mitt Romney has run the closest thing to a policy-free race as any candidate in my lifetime."

- From conservative writer David Brooks, in a recent column in which he asserted that the 2012 presidential election has the potential to be the dullest ever.

I completely agree with Brooks' characterization of the election as monotonous and uninteresting, and in fact, made a similar observation in a post I wrote a couple of months ago (Will 2012 Be Our Most Boring Election Ever?). In that article, my estimation of a thoroughly lackluster campaign was dead on, although my assumption that the candidates would conduct themselves with "refreshing" civility has proven incorrect.

We were all taught in childhood that if we had nothing nice to say, then we should say nothing at all. If our two presidential candidates followed that adage, we'd have not only the most boring, but also the quietest election in U.S. history.

Turn of Phrase - Brits Respond to Romney's Olympic Insult

Romney and Cameron
Photo: Charles Dharapak / AP

"We are holding an Olympic Games in one of the busiest, most active, bustling cities anywhere in the world. Of course it's easier if you hold an Olympic Games in the middle of nowhere."

- British P.M. David Cameron, gently reminding Mitt Romney that hosting the Olympics in London is a far more complex venture than hosting in Salt Lake City.

Cameron, and for that matter the rest of the British, were appropriately pissed when Romney, who is visiting Great Britain this week, attempted to show off his Olympics executive "expertise," telling NBC's Brian Williams that he had seen "a few things that were disconcerting" with regard to London's preparedness. 

We all know how challenging it can be navigating the treacherous and uncertain waters of American-British foreign policy. If Mitt handles a long-term ally like the U.K. with this much aplomb, I can only imagine how well he would manage relations with China or Russia.

Turn of Phrase - Romney's Pathetic Non-Answer On Immigration

Romney at Hispanic Leadership
Network lunch on Friday
Photo: Charles Dharapak /AP

"Some people have asked if I will let stand the president's executive action. 

The answer is that I will put in place my own long-term solution that will replace and supersede the president's temporary measure. 

As president, I won't settle for a stop-gap measure. I will work with Republicans and Democrats to find a long-term solution."

- From Mitt Romney, in response to President Obama's bold unilateral decision to change to U.S. immigration policy. Last Friday, the President issued an executive order stating the U.S. would no longer pursue deportation of young illegal immigrants who were brought into the country as children.

No one expects Romney to solve anything - he's a candidate, not the President. Nonetheless, his empty rhetoric and vague promises continue to disappoint. Dude, just tell us what you think!

Romney's address to the Hispanic Leadership Network today in Florida provided him with the perfect opportunity to rebut Obama's action and outline specifics of his own plan for addressing the immigration challenge (and if he has no plan, he could still give Americans some idea of what he thinks would be fair).

Instead, Romney gives us more waffly non-answers and another mouthful of partisan criticism of President Obama, who at least took a substantive policy position, decided on important first steps, and implemented them.

Did you read about Romney's new economic approach?

Obama's Job Creation Tightrope Walk

The new Obama campaign ad attacks
Romney's record on job creation.

The nation's jobless statistics for May were released last week, and the results were undeniably abysmal.

Forecasters had anticipated the creation of 150,000 news jobs in May, and instead, Department of Labor reporting showed only 67,000 jobs were added - a number so low it fails to even keep up with the nation's population growth.

The overall unemployment rate also rose for the first time in months from 8.1% to 8.2%, and numerous other economic indicators, like GDP growth, manufacturing orders, and auto sales also declined.

What does all this mean for everyday Americans? Essentially, it means we're no more fucked than we were last month, but we're also no closer to putting the last remnants of the Bush economic morass behind us.

As the general election in November creeps ever closer, the Obama campaign is most assuredly getting nervous over the serious slowdown in job growth. Early in the year, the economy, as well as the President's approval ratings, seemed to be picking up steam, but in the last two months the recovery has all but stalled out.

The President and his staff must walk an incredibly tenuous tightrope at this point. While it's true that President Obama inherited an economic disaster, he's been in office for three full years now, and the "we didn't start the fire" argument is no longer an adequate rebuttal to criticism of the President's failure to engineer an economic turnaround.

Democrats can continue to trot out the Job Creation Chart, and while the fact remains that private sector job growth continues to be positive (in the blue), the trend for 2012 shows each month in decline. Click to enlarge the chart.

In May, 82,000 private sector jobs were added (note: this stat doesn't reflect 15,000 public sector jobs that were eliminated). This job creation number is below expectations, but still far better than the 839,000 jobs lost in President Bush's last month in office. As the overall unemployment number grows, most Americans will perceive Obama's recent results as better than catastrophic Bush era figures, but not good enough.

With news of a second consecutive month of relatively poor economic indicators, and the increasing ineffectiveness of playing the Bush/Congress blame game, the Obama campaign has transitioned its focus to an emphasis on Romney's lack of economic success as governor of Massachusetts.

Turn of Phrase - Bill Clinton Praises Romney, Tries To Refocus Political Dialogue

"I don’t think we ought to get in a position where we say this is bad work. This is good work. I think, however, the real issue ought to be: 

What has Governor Romney advocated in the campaign that he will do as president? What has President Obama done and what does he propose to do? 

How these things stack up against each other? That’s the most relevant thing."

- From former President Bill Clinton, commenting on Mitt Romney's work with Bain Capital during a Thursday night interview on CNN.

Hardcore liberals are frustrated with Clinton's characterization of Romney's business career as "sterling," insisting that it undercuts the Obama campaign's attack strategy.

Cynics criticize Clinton's remarks as self-serving, citing the former president's close ties to Wall Street, and declaring that he is simply fulfilling his own obligations to the private equity industry.

I choose, perhaps naively, to read no ulterior motive into Clinton's statement, beyond the former President attempting to appropriately refocus the political dialogue. I also agree with Clinton's characterization of Romney's business career. The guy is wealthy like a sultan, or a Trump, right? He's done well in the financial industry, but for me, the question of Romney's business success misses the mark. 

Romney's private sector experience, while somewhat relevant, doesn't serve as immaculate qualification for repairing the nation's stumbling economy. Holding a leadership role in single private equity firm qualifies a businessman to develop and implement national economic policy about as much as owning a chain of successful emergency care clinics qualifies a businessman to head the Department of Health and Human Services.

Yes, I get it. Romney knows how to make money in private sector business. And the guy who owns the emergency care clinics knows how to set up a medical organization to heal sick people. In neither case though, do the private sector skills and experience automatically translate to some magical wisdom about the larger and infinitely more complex public sector arena. 

The media and the right-wing are sensationalizing Clinton's "praise" for Romney, while the important angle here is Clinton's clear and simple characterization of what our electoral focus should be.

- Mr. Romney, what specifically are your plans for our future?

- Mr. Obama, what have you done for us lately?

Will 2012 Be Our Most Boring Election Ever?

GOP voters listening intently.
Photo: Edward Linsmier / Getty

Every four years in American politics one presidential candidate or another is likely to characterize that year’s contest as “the most important election of our lifetime,” and of course that sentiment is, almost always, untrue.

Nonetheless, self-important politicians imagine that the world events and domestic issues with which they must wrangle are the most grievous in history, or at least that's what they'd like voters to believe.

For this November’s general election, the "most important" moniker rings particularly hollow. While the election is shaping up to be a close race, it's not piling up the necessary political tender to catch fire and become an impassioned barnburner. Perhaps it all feels anti-climactic compared to the historic aura that surrounded the 2008 election, or maybe it's simply pre-convention summer doldrums. For whatever reason, this year’s presidential contest is showing early signs that it may be the most boring, not the most important, election of our lifetime.

Maybe it’s the choice of candidates that make this election feel like a potential snoozer.

It’s no secret that Mitt Romney has struggled to unite the Republican Party. With key policy positions that possess Gumby-like flexibility, the Republican establishment and GOP rank-and-file voters have been slow to warm to Romney. Primary turnout has been low, and while the GOP base has finally rallied around its frontrunner, they did so reluctantly, committing to Romney only after test-driving every other candidate in the market.

The caution and control Romney practices in his daily interactions with the public have enabled him to avoid any significant political pitfalls, but they have also added to his robotic demeanor and inhibited his ability to forge meaningful connections with his audience. As for Romney’s bank of engaging ideas, they sound distressingly similar to the strategies of our last Republican administration. “Yay,” cried the GOP, “more of what we used to do.”

Democrats, meanwhile, continue to be periodically inspired by President Obama, but some of his luster has most assuredly worn off.

Romney Minimizes Obama’s Role In Killing Bin Laden and Unfairly Insults Carter

As we reach the one-year anniversary of the late night Seal Team Six raid on a compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan, the White House is exerting more than a little energy reminding Americans of the administration’s most significant national security accomplishment – the killing of Osama Bin Laden.

The Romney campaign is working equally hard to minimize the gravity of President Obama’s decision to authorize the attack on Bin Laden’s suspected hideout. While campaigning in New Hampshire on Monday, Mitt Romney went so far as to relate to a group of reporters that “even Jimmy Carter would have given that order.”

Investigative reports indicate that the President’s decision to launch an attack on foreign soil was by no means a decision that could be made lightly. With an estimated 50% chance that Bin Laden might not actually be at the compound, and in light of potential complications that could have arisen with the Pakistani military, the decision was anything but the slam-dunk that Romney implies.

President Jimmy Carter
Photo: Scott Olson/Getty Images

In his attempt to minimize the Obama decision, Romney also invokes the name of former President Jimmy Carter in a context which indicates that he views Carter as having been unqualified to conduct American foreign policy, implying that the 39th president was perhaps either too inexperienced or too cowardly.

It’s true that, for some Americans, Carter’s foreign policy street cred has been forever scarred, but the damage was done primarily by a singular notable failure - the inability to successfully resolve the Iranian hostage crisis, despite a military mission he authorized that attempted to do so.

Without arguing the merits of each individual foreign policy decision made during the Carter administration, it might be instructive to consider President Carter's international relations experience relative to Mitt Romney’s.

Turn of Phrase - Gay Spokesman Quits Romney Campaign

Richard Grenell - Romney Aide
Photo: Stephen Hilger/Bloomberg

"I want to thank Governor Romney for his belief in me and my abilities and his clear message to me that being openly gay was a non-issue for him and his team."

- From Richard Grenell, openly gay Foreign Policy and National Security Spokesman for the Romney campaign. 

Grenell resigned Tuesday after significant pressure from socially conservative Republicans made it impossible for him to do his job.

The Romney campaign aide went out of his way to point out that his gayness was not an issue for Romney or the campaign staff. It's unfortunate that the rest of the Republican party couldn't leave Grenell's personal sexual orientation out of his professional life.

Turn Of Phrase - Ted Nugent Threatens Obama

Nugent speaking to NRA crowd.

"If Barack Obama becomes the President in November again, I will either be dead or in jail by this time next year."

"If you don't know that our government is wiping its ass with the constitution, you're living under a rock some place."

- From gun-toting elder-rocker and GOP activist Ted Nugent, during remarks he made while stumping for Mitt Romney at an NRA convention last weekend.

In other insightful commentary from Nugent, he noted that the re-election of Obama would ensure America's place as "a suburb of Indonesia."

Look no further, Mitt. You've found the perfect running mate. By choosing Ted Nugent as your VP, you can reassure the Tea Partiers that small-minded extremist fearmongering is alive and well in the GOP.

Here's the full 3-minute clip of Nugent at the NRA convention if you want to enjoy more cogent political discourse.

Play Time Is Over for Obama and Democrats

The Way We Were
Photo: Getty Images

For nearly a year, we Democrats have lounged comfortably on our sofas, munching our popcorn and writing our snarky blogs, while the GOP circus came to town each day and entertained us.

Big top performers like Newt Gingrich and Rick Santorum amazed and amused us, while unforgettably freakish sideshow acts like Rick Perry, Herman Cain, and Michelle Bachmann, sent us wildly retreating in horror and befuddlement. Until now, a good time was had by all.

As the primary race nears its inevitable conclusion though, and the Republican party finally moves forward through the stages of grief (Romney "denial" seems to have been an inordinately stubborn phase), those hilarious political barbs we've seen the GOP contenders toss candidly at each other will now be sharpened and hurled with increasing force at President Obama and his policies.

Remember how much fun those televised debates were? Rick Perry stumble-fucking his way through almost every argument or response, Herman Cain sound-biting his way to shooting star-like brightness and burnout, Ron Paul sounding measured and reasonable - pushing his thoughtful agenda of actual ideas as if someone in the GOP really cared, and Michelle Bachmann, that wacky Minnesota congresswoman, just plain scaring the crap out of all of us. Oh, the memories. Letting go is hard, but we can't let ourselves live in the past. We all have to move on eventually.

Here we are at last, with a clear frontrunner and a nearly presumptive Republican nominee. Beware Democrats! I warn you - this one is not like the others. While the rest of the field has been sloppy, undisciplined, and slightly lunatic, Mitt Romney has proven himself to be a well-oiled machine (sorry, as soon as I thought of it, I had to use it).

Romney is prepared and organized, and with more than five years of practice under his belt, he is finally a formidable foe in the world of presidential politics. He's a master of deception, capable of deftly shifting positions right before your eyes, a man who can appear to be passionate about nothing while caring deeply about representing his own interests.

Here's a look at the clever trickery we have to look forward to from the Romney campaign.

Turn of Phrase - Mitt's Wife Wants to Unzip Him

"We better unzip him and let the real Mitt Romney out because he is not."


- From Mitt Romney's wife Ann, in response to a question about the common perception that her husband's personality is "too stiff."


In a related story, Rick Santorum commented that because Mitt and Ann are a married heterosexual couple, unzipping is permissible.

5 Signs "W" Plans to Endorse Romney

Romney and the elder Bushes

George H.W. Bush, our forty-first president, has officially endorsed Mitt Romney as the Republican presidential nominee.

One of the senior Bush's sons, former Florida governor Jeb Bush, made the same announcement last week, but his other political progeny, George W. Bush, a man whose name is uttered in GOP circles these days only slightly less often than Voldemort's name is spoken at Hogwarts, has been silent thus far about which candidate he prefers in 2012.

If you've been eager to find out which contender will be the lucky beneficiary of W's endorsement, your wait is over. I have leveraged my enormous journalistic resources and keen instincts for truth to ferret out the answer. 

Here are 5 recent actions that George W. Bush has taken which are evidence of his plans to endorse Mitt Romney for President. 

1. Hired a web developer to post "Mission Accomplished" banner atop Romney campaign website.

2. Asked the Supreme Court to interrupt primary season and declare Romney the winner.

3. Called Dick Cheney to ask for permission. 

4. Announced plans to finally put an end to torture - by halting televised Republican candidate debates.

5. Nominated Mike "Good job Brownie" Brown to clean up debris scattered by the Gingrich disaster.

Thanks to these Bush family endorsements (and also to delegate math and the absence of any other reasonable candidates) there's virtually no way Mitt can lose the nomination. 

Santorum Wins South, Still Loses in Delegates

Photo: Reuters

After winning two Southern primaries yesterday, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum said in his victory speech, "We did it again!"

Yes you did, Senator. You scored a public relations victory and received the lion's share of mainstream media attention, but you actually managed to lose the delegate tally for the day.

Santorum did indeed sweep the South yesterday, winning both the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, but thanks to the fancy math of delegate apportionment in those states and two less publicized Pacific primary races, Mitt Romney actually extended his lead in the total delegate count.

Romney failed to win either Southern primary, but he finished just 3% behind Santorum in Mississippi and only 6% behind in Alabama. When delegates from those states are split among the candidates, and you add in delegates from late night results reported from contests in Hawaii and American Samoa, both handily won by Romney, the former Massachusetts Governor actually added about a half dozen more delegates to his total than Santorum did.

Santorum got the press and whatever campaign contribution boosts that might bring, but Romney won the day and moved closer to earning the nomination at the Republican convention this August. The frontrunner may have lost the 24-hour news cycle battle, but he won the delegate war, and in the end, Romney's strategy and organization will win out over Santorum's perceived conservative sincerity.

With Newt Gingrich playing spoiler and vowing to stay in the race until the end, and with Santorum "victory days" like Tuesday, it will only be a matter of weeks before Mitt Romney wins the Republican presidential primary race.

Romney Likes Grits, Right Ya'll?

I find it easier to accept as fact that Mitt Romney runs on motor oil, than that he really likes the taste of grits. Clearly, someone with the stature of Newt Gingrich has more experience with grits (and butter and ribs and cornbread and banana puddin'), but Romney is gaining ground in Alabama and Mississippi nonetheless.

Take a look at Mitt's less-than-convincing video clip. I dare ya'll not to wince.

Romney Struggles with Good News About Jobs

"We can do better. These numbers cannot hide the fact that President Obama's policies have prevented a true economic recovery."

- GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney, commenting on the undeniably positive jobs report from January.

In the skeazy world of presidential elections, politicians and their hench-persons frequently attempt to establish something as "true," by simply saying it over and over again. The repetition method is often effective in subverting or slanting the truth (remember John Kerry, the French flip-flopping traitor to his country?), but in the face of indisputable statistical evidence to the contrary, regurgitating the same falsities day after day amounts to little more than pathetic and transparent rhetoric.

Under President Obama's policies, the facts are thus:

• 243,000 jobs were created in January 2012.
• Job creation has been positive for 23 consecutive months.
• The unemployment rate has reached the lowest point in three years.

Considering the complete absence of job growth that existed when the President took over (see the red segment of the chart above), the only rational conclusion one can draw is that the trend in job creation has been overwhelmingly positive under President Obama. Those are the facts.

Faced with ongoing good news about job creation, Mitt Romney and the GOP can no longer question that an economic recovery is taking place. They are left to feebly assert that while the numbers look pretty good, they may not represent a genuine economic recovery. The party out of power in the White House once again finds themselves in that awkward place where what is good for the nation is not good for their electoral ambitions. Republicans can argue that the recovery isn't "true" (whatever that means) or that it isn't occurring fast enough, but the reality is that it is happening.

In November 2012, when faced with a choice between the guys whose policies brought on total economic clusterfuck, or the guy whose policies are bringing us out of the funk - however slow, but steady - I'll take the latter.