Santorum Wins South, Still Loses in Delegates

Photo: Reuters

After winning two Southern primaries yesterday, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum said in his victory speech, "We did it again!"

Yes you did, Senator. You scored a public relations victory and received the lion's share of mainstream media attention, but you actually managed to lose the delegate tally for the day.

Santorum did indeed sweep the South yesterday, winning both the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, but thanks to the fancy math of delegate apportionment in those states and two less publicized Pacific primary races, Mitt Romney actually extended his lead in the total delegate count.

Romney failed to win either Southern primary, but he finished just 3% behind Santorum in Mississippi and only 6% behind in Alabama. When delegates from those states are split among the candidates, and you add in delegates from late night results reported from contests in Hawaii and American Samoa, both handily won by Romney, the former Massachusetts Governor actually added about a half dozen more delegates to his total than Santorum did.

Santorum got the press and whatever campaign contribution boosts that might bring, but Romney won the day and moved closer to earning the nomination at the Republican convention this August. The frontrunner may have lost the 24-hour news cycle battle, but he won the delegate war, and in the end, Romney's strategy and organization will win out over Santorum's perceived conservative sincerity.

With Newt Gingrich playing spoiler and vowing to stay in the race until the end, and with Santorum "victory days" like Tuesday, it will only be a matter of weeks before Mitt Romney wins the Republican presidential primary race.

Do Republicans Even Care Any More?

Mitt Romney and his wife Ann.
Photo: Reuters / Brian Snyder

With more than 400 delegates up for grabs, Super Tuesday is the most important primary day to date, and the atmosphere among Republican voters is muddled at best, and apathetic at worst.

Voter turnout has been inconsistent from state to state, and in many primary races, public participation has reflected more on the strength of the candidates' ground organizations than on a genuine groundswell of enthusiasm for ideas. For GOP voters, the primary season appears to feel rote and mechanical, an unsatisfying exercise in futility and eventuality, all of which bodes poorly for Republican hopes in the Fall.

Why so glum? Three fundamental elements underly the absence of enthusiasm in Republican voters, two of which have been much discussed and one of which is true, but less remarked upon to date. We all know the main causes of GOP apathy: (1) Mitt Romney (2) No viable alternative to Mitt Romney. The other factor which is worth at least a casual mention at this point is (3) No new ideas to rally around. Even Mitt could be popular if he had something interesting to add to our national dialogue.

Despite the general lack of excitement for the frontrunner (see issue #1 above), Mitt Romney heads into Super Tuesday riding high on an impressive string of five consecutive victories, which include Maine, Michigan, Arizona, Wyoming, and Washington (a direct result of issue #2 above). Romney still has cash, he still has a solid campaign organization, and he still has a sizable delegate lead over the rest of the field. After Super Tuesday, all of those things will still be true, and the unmotivated GOP population knows it.

Headlines the GOP Hates On Road to Michigan

Photo: Jeff Kowalsky/Bloomberg

The next major Republican primary contest is scheduled for Michigan in less than two weeks.

As Santorum and Romney battle it out in the state that should have easily been Romney's, it may not matter who wins the primary - or even the GOP nomination.

 Republicans woke up to these three headlines today:

• Jobless Claims Drop to Near 4-Year Low
• GM Reports Big Profit
• Bailout Politics: Even Michigan's Economy Is Improving

The economic news is once again very good for America, but horrible for the GOP. The number of Americans who filed new unemployment claims last week is the lowest it has been since March 2008, almost a full year before George Bush left office. General Motors, whose Obama-backed bailout was opposed by both Romney and Santorum, has reported its eighth consecutive profitable quarter. This will result in profit-sharing bonuses of up to $7,500 for nearly 50,000 eligible hourly workers at GM. The impact of the auto industry resurgence is lifting the entire Michigan economy, and tax revenues in the state have risen so dramatically that the state now has a $450 million budget surplus.

Romney and Santorum can argue all they want over who can best put things back the way they were in the first eight years of this decade, but no one wants to revert to a proven failed way of doing business, when the new way works.  

It doesn't matter which Republican wins the GOP primary on February 28. With headlines like these, Michigan will vote blue in 2012.

Turn of Phrase - The Long Primary To Nowhere

"Bottom line: for a long primary process to reveal diamonds in the rough, the diamonds actually have to be there in the rough for the revealing."

- From writer Noah Millman, commenting in American Conservative magazine on the absence of genuinely exciting Republican candidates.

For both Republicans and Democrats, the long primary process serves a multitude of purposes. Like professional sports playoffs, the primary system is intended to be a proving ground that highlights and exploits the strengths and weaknesses of participants, while simultaneously affording them the opportunity to sharpen their skills as they advance through the process. Theoretically, the process culminates eventually in the coronation of a frontrunner who outshines the rest and who best represents the interests of his or her party. Theoretically.

As Millman points out, Republicans are doing their best to slog down the long, twisty, and rambling primary highway, but it looks more likely each day that their road may be heading nowhere.

Republicans Make or Break Their Best Option Today in New Hampshire

Huntsman gaining ground in NH

For months former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman has deserved more attention than he has received from both the media and the Republican base. With a slight bump in the polls in New Hampshire and some noteworthy moments in recent candidate debates, Huntsman has gained prominence in the news, but it may be too late to impact his bid for the Oval Office.

The New Hampshire primary, which is underway even as I type this morning, will tell the tale by the end of today.

The inability of Huntsman to gain traction with right-wing voters may be the biggest tragedy to befall the Republican party since the re-election of George W. Bush in 2004. Jon Huntsman's experience in foreign policy, his demeanor, and his tenure as an executive leader in government, along with the serious and intelligent focus he places on the substantive policy issues of this election, should earn him a top three finish in every primary, and an occasional first place finish in states with more moderate electorate populations, like New Hampshire. Should, but may not. If only Huntsman had challenged the President's birth certificate instead of his economic policies.

Huntsman's clear qualifications for the presidency and his electability have not been sufficient thus far in moving him significantly closer to his party's nomination. Most Republicans would find themselves relatively comfortable with Huntsman's economic and national security positions (if they learned about them), and because of his consistently right-wing stance on deal-breaker issues like abortion and taxes, they could probably overlook his moderate views on gay rights and other social issues. The problem for the former governor and ambassador to China is his refusal to participate in the fiery, albeit groundless, Obama-bashing that energizes Tea Partiers, and his preference for reasonable policy-talk over the kind of divisive bullshit sideshow rhetoric that dominates the broadcast news cycle.

Gingrich Excluded From Primary In Virginia

Newt Gingrich received a political lump of coal in his stocking on Christmas Eve, as the state of Virginia announced the former House Speaker failed to deliver the 10,000 verifiable signatures required to be included on the state's primary ballot.

Gingrich, who resides in Virginia, led all candidates in recent polling, but will be unable to earn delegates from the state.

Only Mitt Romney and Ron Paul met the state's requirements for inclusion in the primary, and as a result, they will be the only choices Republican voters in Virginia see on the March 6 ballot.

Gingrich campaign director Michael Krull gave us insight into what a Newt presidency might look like as he blamed the "failed system" in the state of Virginia for Gingrich's exclusion, rather than accepting responsibility for the campaign screw-up. This failure is also evidence of the kind of weakness and structure inherent in Gingrich's campaign that has so many Democrats excited about the possibility of an Obama-Gingrich general election in November.

Say what you will about Ron Paul as an eccentric and unelectable candidate, but the Texas Congressman managed to collect and submit the required signatures by the Virginia deadline. There is clearly both truth and relevance behind the assertions with which we are constantly barraged about Ron Paul's grassroots organization and "boots on the ground" capacity in states across the union.

Republican Journalist Makes Common Sense Case for Romney or Hunstman

Photo: Mandel Ngana/Getty Images

Conservative journalist David Frum has such a clearheaded view of the Republican field of presidential candidates that I have to keep checking his Wikipedia page to make sure he's not a Democrat. Frum is indeed a Republican, and a Canadian-American as well, a heritage which I credit for the absence of foam at the corners of his mouth when he speaks about politics.

In a recent piece for the National Post, Frum argues that Republicans have only two reasonable choices in their field of primary contenders, if they want to have a realistic possibility at taking down President Obama next November.  According to Frum, "it's Romney, Huntsman, or bust."

Frum's rationale and the criteria he looks for in a candidate are admirable, and his description of the field of the candidates, with the exception of his near-endorsement of Rick Santorum, is totally on point. I'm linking the article which will be interesting to anyone who appreciates politics, but I am especially hopeful that my Republican friends (and family) will take a look.

Republicans - Frum is one of your own and he's spot on with his assessment of the choices you have in 2012. If you really want to take the White House back, and you want to be sure you install a qualified leader who can actually make good decisions and move the country forward, then pay close to attention to David Frum's advice.