Facts About Jobs Before and Since Obama (September 2012 - Election Edition)

UPDATE (NOV 4 2012): October 2012 employment results were released on Friday 11/2/2012. The 170,000 jobs created exceeded expectations and are a sign of continued consistent recovery.

ORIGINAL POST (OCT 2012)

While GOP conspiracy theorists (like former General Electric CEO Jack Welch) embarrass themselves with baseless allegations that the White House somehow manipulated the numbers, President Obama spent the day touting the undeniably positive facts included in the Bureau of Labor Statistics report.

1. September saw 114,000 new jobs added, making it the 31st consecutive month of private sector job growth. 
2. The unemployment rate dropped dramatically from 8.1% to 7.8%, the lowest point in four years. (Notably, this month's decline was NOT due to workers who "gave up" and dropped out of the workforce.)
3. The economy has added 5.2 million jobs since March 2010.

Chart created by Steve Benen of Maddow Blog, using BLS numbers

A few months of consecutive private sector job growth might be luck, but thirty-one consecutive months of increases is an undeniable positive trend that is evidence of a steadily improving economy and the directional correctness of our nation's economic policy.

Romney and his GOP supporters can (and probably should) continue to key on the unacceptable pace of the economic recovery, but results like these take much of the sting out of any election season barbs they throw at the President.

In a November 2011 post, I said that Obama only needed continued consistent forward motion in U.S. labor results to re-secure his place in the White House for four more years. With this year's employment trends, which have been capped off nicely by September's significant reduction in the nation's unemployment rate, I stand by my prediction.

Facts About Jobs Before and Since Obama (August 2012)

The Bureau of Labor Statistics provided unemployment and job market numbers on Friday for the period of August 2012. With 103,000 private sector jobs added in August and 7,000 public sector/government jobs eliminated, the report reflected a disappointing net gain of 96,000 new jobs.

The Bureau's August release also shows a reduction in the unemployment rate from 8.3% to 8.1%. While this is positive news on its face, the decline in the unemployment rate results mostly from a decrease in the number of Americans who are seeking work, not from an increase in the number of newly created jobs.

The big picture bad news embedded in the August job statistics is that the economy and job market continue to recover at a pace which almost everyone, including the President, finds to be unacceptably sluggish.

The good news is we now have 30 consecutive months of positive job growth. Additionally, according to Steve Benen on the Maddow Blog, in the first eight months of 2012 the economy yielded 1.2 million new private sector jobs, which is already better than five of the eight Bush/Cheney years in their entirety.

Our choices in the upcoming presidential election are becoming increasingly clear. Some of us will decide that President Obama has made the right choices and opt to give him four more years to finish the job of repairing a devastated economy. Others will conclude that the speed of the recovery is simply unacceptable and will opt for the Romney alternative.

Regardless of your choice, I believe it's important to pursue and process the unadulterated facts. The graph above represents actual job growth results and trends (red = Bush, blue = Obama), which I believe illustrate simply and plainly the real world impact of the policies of the current and prior White House administrations.

By the end of the Bush administration, we were losing more than 600,000 jobs per month. Under President Obama job growth has been slow, but steady and positive.

My question for Mr. Romney is this - what specifically are you proposing that is different from the Bush-era policies that led to so much of the "red ink" and job loss in the chart above?

Obama's Job Creation Tightrope Walk

The new Obama campaign ad attacks
Romney's record on job creation.

The nation's jobless statistics for May were released last week, and the results were undeniably abysmal.

Forecasters had anticipated the creation of 150,000 news jobs in May, and instead, Department of Labor reporting showed only 67,000 jobs were added - a number so low it fails to even keep up with the nation's population growth.

The overall unemployment rate also rose for the first time in months from 8.1% to 8.2%, and numerous other economic indicators, like GDP growth, manufacturing orders, and auto sales also declined.

What does all this mean for everyday Americans? Essentially, it means we're no more fucked than we were last month, but we're also no closer to putting the last remnants of the Bush economic morass behind us.

As the general election in November creeps ever closer, the Obama campaign is most assuredly getting nervous over the serious slowdown in job growth. Early in the year, the economy, as well as the President's approval ratings, seemed to be picking up steam, but in the last two months the recovery has all but stalled out.

The President and his staff must walk an incredibly tenuous tightrope at this point. While it's true that President Obama inherited an economic disaster, he's been in office for three full years now, and the "we didn't start the fire" argument is no longer an adequate rebuttal to criticism of the President's failure to engineer an economic turnaround.

Democrats can continue to trot out the Job Creation Chart, and while the fact remains that private sector job growth continues to be positive (in the blue), the trend for 2012 shows each month in decline. Click to enlarge the chart.

In May, 82,000 private sector jobs were added (note: this stat doesn't reflect 15,000 public sector jobs that were eliminated). This job creation number is below expectations, but still far better than the 839,000 jobs lost in President Bush's last month in office. As the overall unemployment number grows, most Americans will perceive Obama's recent results as better than catastrophic Bush era figures, but not good enough.

With news of a second consecutive month of relatively poor economic indicators, and the increasing ineffectiveness of playing the Bush/Congress blame game, the Obama campaign has transitioned its focus to an emphasis on Romney's lack of economic success as governor of Massachusetts.

Obama's "Job-Killing" Results In 4 Million Jobs

Republican presidential candidates love to criticize President Obama's "job-killing" policies, citing specifically his penchant for over-regulation and his wasted stimulus spending. Each month's updated employment statistics, however, totally contradict the right-wing rhetoric, proving it to be nothing more than fabrication and fiction.

The February jobs report was released today by the Department of Labor, and for the third consecutive month, our economy benefitted from the creation of more than 200,000 new jobs. 

Additionally, nearly 500,000 job-seekers who had stopped looking for work have re-ignited their search for gainful employment. Amazingly, job growth has been so robust that even with this massive influx of workers added back into the equation, the unemployment rate remained steady at 8.3%. 

Campaign rhetoric is often nothing more than empty words, but facts are facts. Below is a chart that shows our actual employment statistics in the twelve months before Obama compared to the three years since Obama. 

Viewing Tip: Clicking on the chart should open a larger easier-to-read version.

Dept of Labor Employment Statistics, Feb 2012

The fact is that America has enjoyed 24 consecutive months of job growth, resulting in more than 4 million newly created jobs in the last two years. 

Consequently, I ask you all to join me in imploring President Obama to absolutely continue the implementation of the horrific "job-killing" policies that Romney, Santorum, Gingrich, and Paul have warned us against. I'd rather live with steady progress and bombastic right-wing criticism, than return to the glory days of the Bush-era economy.

5 Things Republicans Should Stop Attacking

1. Economy/Jobs - Sorry, it's improving. Hard to accept, but you can't win this one.

2. Gays - Seven states have legalized gay marriage. Not enough bigots left for this to matter.

3. Birth Control - Seriously? Even Catholics are on the pill.

4. The Teleprompter  - Get over it. The President is an inspiring speaker. Also, in a sing-off, Obama's voice delivers a solid ass-whooping to Mitt's voice.

5. Iran - Did GWB teach you nothing about fucking up foreign policy? Besides, no one wants to pay for another war. 

With apologies to my friend Selene (who has reminded me more than once to stop feeding good suggestions to the GOP), I feel obligated to send this simple message to my Republican friends - it's the trillion dollar budget deficit, stupid!

Republicans find themselves faced with these facts: Under President Obama, the economy and job market have shown consistent growth, and they continue to move in the right direction. The U.S. is now out of Iraq, and the troop draw down is underway in Afghanistan. Oh yeah, did I mention that whole killing of Osama bin Laden thingy?

So, here's all you have left GOP. I'm a fairly hardcore Democrat, and even I can't stand that the President's current budget proposal, if adopted, would guarantee another year of $1 trillion deficit spending. Think about it - for four straight years, our government will have spent $1 trillion more than they collected. And what's worse, we would make minimal reductions in the next six years, adding at least another half trillion dollars per year to what we already owe. Not acceptable. Bill Clinton must be rolling over in his satin bed sheets.

The Obama administration will argue that these deficits are the price we must pay to repair the damage done to our economy by the Bush administration, and they may be right. But honestly, other than a somewhat related argument the GOP can make against Obamacare, there are no other significant issues around which they can rally enough Americans to actually beat Obama.

The sad fact for the even sadder right wing is this - if the economy continues its slow and steady improvement, Obama will win. But hey GOP - at least I'm offering you something to legitimately complain about.

Romney Struggles with Good News About Jobs

"We can do better. These numbers cannot hide the fact that President Obama's policies have prevented a true economic recovery."

- GOP frontrunner Mitt Romney, commenting on the undeniably positive jobs report from January.

In the skeazy world of presidential elections, politicians and their hench-persons frequently attempt to establish something as "true," by simply saying it over and over again. The repetition method is often effective in subverting or slanting the truth (remember John Kerry, the French flip-flopping traitor to his country?), but in the face of indisputable statistical evidence to the contrary, regurgitating the same falsities day after day amounts to little more than pathetic and transparent rhetoric.

Under President Obama's policies, the facts are thus:

• 243,000 jobs were created in January 2012.
• Job creation has been positive for 23 consecutive months.
• The unemployment rate has reached the lowest point in three years.

Considering the complete absence of job growth that existed when the President took over (see the red segment of the chart above), the only rational conclusion one can draw is that the trend in job creation has been overwhelmingly positive under President Obama. Those are the facts.

Faced with ongoing good news about job creation, Mitt Romney and the GOP can no longer question that an economic recovery is taking place. They are left to feebly assert that while the numbers look pretty good, they may not represent a genuine economic recovery. The party out of power in the White House once again finds themselves in that awkward place where what is good for the nation is not good for their electoral ambitions. Republicans can argue that the recovery isn't "true" (whatever that means) or that it isn't occurring fast enough, but the reality is that it is happening.

In November 2012, when faced with a choice between the guys whose policies brought on total economic clusterfuck, or the guy whose policies are bringing us out of the funk - however slow, but steady - I'll take the latter.

Romney Aiming at Wrong Target

During a campaign stop in South Carolina today, Mitt Romney accused President Obama of not understanding how the American economy works, and then added, "It's time to get a president who does."

I appreciate a good stump speech as much as the next guy, but I think Team Romney's attention might be better focused elsewhere. The last thing I want is to see Romney lose additional ground to his more insane fundamentalist challengers. In the spirit of support, I'm sharing a few headlines from today's news that might encourage the GOP frontrunner to climb off the President's back and get his message back on the right track.

• U.S. Economy Gains Steam as 200,000 Jobs Are Added
• Job Growth Quickens; Unemployment Near Three-Year Low
• Santorum, Riding Wave, Sharpens Aim at Romney
• Gingrich On Offensive to Prove Viability to NH Voters
• South Carolina Polls Show Romney Leading, Santorum Surging

Seems the President has the economy under control, and the Romney folks should pay more attention to the rest of the GOP. I'm sure the former governor's campaign team would like to believe they can ignore Santorum and head straight for the general election, but with the Republican base still looking for any other viable options to Romney, the frontrunner would be well-served not to underestimate any opponent. 

Note to Team Romney - Remember the Patriots-Giants Superbowl from 2008? Don't get too comfortable. There's a reason why they make you play the game.

Facts About Jobs - Before and Since Obama

UPDATE: The chart below has been updated to reflect Bureau of Labor stats thru September 2012. Click here for the revised chart.



This graph is the simplest and most honest representation I have seen of the employment environment that President Obama "inherited" and the results accomplished since he took office.

Viewing Tip: Clicking on the chart should open a larger easier-to-read version.

The two stories told by this chart are readily apparent.

1. By the time Bush left office, job creation (or job elimination more correctly) was trending increasingly negative each month. In the first year of Obama, results steadily improved, and in the almost two years since then, we have enjoyed positive job growth in 17 of the last 21 months.
2. The unemployment rate peaked at the end of Obama's first year, and since then has shown steady improvement.

Each of us is free to "feel" however we want about the Obama presidency, but these are the facts as reported by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics.

The only rational way to interpret these facts is to recognize that Barack Obama inherited an employment scenario that was in a total tailspin, and that just a few months into his presidency, a jobs recovery began that continues today. Maybe the turnaround hasn't happened at the speed with which we all hoped it would (and I would submit that maybe our expectations were unrealistic), but the trend on Obama's watch has been consistently and undeniably positive.

Print this one out and take it to your cocktail parties. There is no disputing the facts.


Related Posts: Unemployment Rate Falls Dramatically

UPDATED: 110,000 Jobs Created in October

Job creation exceeded expectations in the last two months. In October 110,000 new private sector jobs were created (which more than offset the 24,000 public sector jobs that were lost), and the Labor Department also revised September numbers up to 116,000 (25,000 more than originally reported). While growth is slow, the overall employment outlook is looking a little less bleak.

The private sector job growth had a small but positive impact on the nation's unemployment rate, which dipped from 9.1% to 9.0%, the lowest rate in six months.

My gut feeling (this is the opinion element of a blog that your friends warned you about) is that it will take little additional movement of the nation's unemployment number (a modest reduction to 8.5% or 8.6%) to get consumer confidence kicked up significantly and to secure re-election for Obama. Sometimes, you just need a little something to feel good about.

Revised on Saturday 11/5/2011

Phoenix Jones - Superhero, Job Creator

This morning I read about a man who was arrested in Seattle for hosing down a group of clubgoers with pepper spray. The daily news is rife with stories of random acts of violence, but this story is special. The pepper spray perpetrator was Benjamin Fodor, aka Phoenix Jones - the most prominent member of the Rain City Superhero Movement.

Phoenix Jones, real life superhero

Phoenix Jones is in Seattle, but real life superheroes are cropping up across America quicker than Wall Street occupiers. I had no idea there were any modern day superheroes, much less a superhero movement, but apparently there is one and it's growing. Witnessing the rise of groups like the Rain City Superheroes, some see a movement, but with my keen mind for business and economics, I see an industry. And where there is industry, there are jobs. To hell with the American Jobs Act. I suggest Congress and White House crank up the full power of the American political machine in support of the new era of the superhero. In doing so, we will rid our streets of those bothersome overly-ambitious clown-faced criminal elements, and more importantly, there will be jobs.

We'll need more superheroes of course. Lots of them. With just a black mask and a matching muscle suit, Phoenix Jones has shown us that the superhero dream is alive and well, and within the grasp of any man or woman who can wield a can of pepper spray. Caped crusaders are the backbone of the superhero business, and this industry can only grow if we foster a wide variety of innovative and entrepreneurial crime-fighters. 

Where there are superheroes, there must be sidekicks. For those who possess a passion for crime fighting but are unsure of their own individual butt-kicking skills, the sidekick role may be perfect. There is plenty of room in this burgeoning new industry for the ride-along type. Everyone can't be in the limelight, right? Someone has to gas up the turbo car and re-stock the utility belts. Let the superhero have the glory - we all know he couldn't do it without a solid sidekick.

Congress Stalls Jobs Act, Offers Nothing New

Senators Harry Reid (D) and Mitch McConnell (R)
Photo: Sam Stein/Huffington Post

In the wake of Republican procedural maneuvers that blocked the President's full American Jobs Act last week, Senate Democrats are planning to take a more piecemeal approach to job creation. I'm skeptical they can do even that, but it's fine with me - just show you can all work together to get something done.

Like most Americans, I'm growing increasingly frustrated with Congress' failure to make progress. Democrats have proven themselves to be unable to gain Republican support for their ideas through either persuasion, political outflanking, or sheer muscle, and Republicans continue to suffer from a perpetual dearth of new and decent ideas of their own.

While standing in staunch opposition to the jobs bill proposed by the White House, Congressional Republicans have proposed little to spur job creation and economic growth beyond removing regulations from various industries (which worked out well in the financial sector, right?), repealing Obamacare (which didn't come into law until after the economy was well down the road to hell), and drilling in the Alaskan Wildlife Refuge (regardless of the economic impact, Republicans seem bent on defiling this piece of wilderness).

Beyond the halls of Congress, Republican presidential candidates have busied themselves re-packaging the same failed economic policies that led us to the promise land we enjoy today. Texas Governor Rick Perry wants to resurrect the "drill baby, drill"mentality and he has done some funny math (according to Republican journalist David Frum) to try and substantiate the validity of this approach. Meanwhile, Herman Cain is breaking no new ground with his 9-9-9 tax plan which offers the same old Republican recipe of robbing from the middle class to protect the top 10%.

My advice to all of them is the same now as it was when the President first proposed his jobs bill in early September - get busy conducting the nation's critically important business or get ready to be swept out of the way in November 2012.

Michele Bachmann Predicts Failure, Offers Nothing

Republican Presidential hopeful (and the most embarrassing thing to come out of Minnesota since Sen. Larry Craig's restroom toe-tapping incident) Michele Bachmann has already started spouting her typical worthless partisan rhetoric in response to the President's jobs plan. As expected, her empty words provide no factual back up for her statements and she offers absolutely ZERO alternative ideas of her own. She is poison and she is simply bad for us all.

Full Text of the President's Speech

Kevin Lamarque  /  Reuters

I've just finished reading the full text of President Obama's jobs speech, and if you missed the address, I would urge you to do the same. Yes, it's long, but educating ourselves takes effort, and this speech contains important details about our economy, something we all say we care about a great deal.

I have to say, President Obama has laid it all out for Congress. He has provided a wealth of specific job creation ideas and he has enumerated specific ways of paying for everything he proposed.

He also very openly acknowledged that there are some ideas his fellow Democrats won't appreciate (like adjustments to Medicare and Medicaid programs) and some ideas Republicans will balk at (like raising tax rates on the very top tier of wealthy Americans). Who gives a damn? If Congress wants to avoid wholesale incumbent replacement in the 2012 election, then they better suck it up, move past the politics and ideology, and take meaningful action.

The White House has gathered all these proposals for boosting our economy WITHOUT increasing our debt into a program called the American Jobs Act. It's now up to Congress to pass this legislation, in whole or in part, and if they can't do that, then they better damn well enact some legislation of their own that will move us forward as a nation.