Do Republicans Even Care Any More?

Mitt Romney and his wife Ann.
Photo: Reuters / Brian Snyder

With more than 400 delegates up for grabs, Super Tuesday is the most important primary day to date, and the atmosphere among Republican voters is muddled at best, and apathetic at worst.

Voter turnout has been inconsistent from state to state, and in many primary races, public participation has reflected more on the strength of the candidates' ground organizations than on a genuine groundswell of enthusiasm for ideas. For GOP voters, the primary season appears to feel rote and mechanical, an unsatisfying exercise in futility and eventuality, all of which bodes poorly for Republican hopes in the Fall.

Why so glum? Three fundamental elements underly the absence of enthusiasm in Republican voters, two of which have been much discussed and one of which is true, but less remarked upon to date. We all know the main causes of GOP apathy: (1) Mitt Romney (2) No viable alternative to Mitt Romney. The other factor which is worth at least a casual mention at this point is (3) No new ideas to rally around. Even Mitt could be popular if he had something interesting to add to our national dialogue.

Despite the general lack of excitement for the frontrunner (see issue #1 above), Mitt Romney heads into Super Tuesday riding high on an impressive string of five consecutive victories, which include Maine, Michigan, Arizona, Wyoming, and Washington (a direct result of issue #2 above). Romney still has cash, he still has a solid campaign organization, and he still has a sizable delegate lead over the rest of the field. After Super Tuesday, all of those things will still be true, and the unmotivated GOP population knows it.

Obama Scoring Points from the Sideline

President Obama has made up significant ground in the last two months with independent voters. Based on early November polling data from Gallup, the President has enjoyed a 21-point swing among independent voters who were asked if they would be more likely to vote for Obama or for the Republican Party candidate in the November 2012 election.

The percentage of independents who indicated in September polling they would prefer one of the Republican presidential candidates has declined by 10%, while the percentage who indicated they would vote for Obama increased by 11%.

The reasons for this dramatic shift in opinion likely have more to do with what Republicans haven't done than with what the President has done.

Since the collection of the September polling data, the U.S. has shown modest improvements in economic growth and the unemployment rate has had a slight decline, but everyone agrees that while recent results are directionally positive, the economy still faces an incredible uphill climb. In October we also witnessed the final overthrow of a corrupt Libyan regime,which included the capture and killing of Muammar Gaddafi, but I'm not sure anyone is paying attention to Obama's foreign policy successes.

Ed Koch Flexes Jewish Muscles

As reported in this NPR article, former NYC mayor Ed Koch has issued a very direct warning to President Obama to "revisit" the administration's position on Israel or be prepared to pay a steep political price with his Jewish constituency. This news story was particularly interesting when juxtaposed against my prior post about former President Jimmy Carter's stance in favor of Palestinian statehood.

As I said in the previous post, Carter's position, while validated when viewed through the lens of history and justice, will not likely wield nearly the political influence with the White House as the small but vocal Jewish voting block.