Obama Scoring Points from the Sideline

President Obama has made up significant ground in the last two months with independent voters. Based on early November polling data from Gallup, the President has enjoyed a 21-point swing among independent voters who were asked if they would be more likely to vote for Obama or for the Republican Party candidate in the November 2012 election.

The percentage of independents who indicated in September polling they would prefer one of the Republican presidential candidates has declined by 10%, while the percentage who indicated they would vote for Obama increased by 11%.

The reasons for this dramatic shift in opinion likely have more to do with what Republicans haven't done than with what the President has done.

Since the collection of the September polling data, the U.S. has shown modest improvements in economic growth and the unemployment rate has had a slight decline, but everyone agrees that while recent results are directionally positive, the economy still faces an incredible uphill climb. In October we also witnessed the final overthrow of a corrupt Libyan regime,which included the capture and killing of Muammar Gaddafi, but I'm not sure anyone is paying attention to Obama's foreign policy successes.


With the President managing only tepid wins in the last two months, there is greater likelihood that independent voters have shifted their preference because of what Republicans haven't accomplished or offered. Republican Presidential candidates now find themselves being held accountable for the "block everything and offer nothing" stance their congressional counterparts have maintained. When one side offers nothing, the little that other side offers becomes more attractive. And what about the actual slate of Republican candidates themselves? Even staunch Republicans don't like any of the choices they've been offered, so you certainly can't expect independents to embrace them.

President Obama may have made some progress in drawing independents to him in recent months, but it is more likely that, in the absence of fresh faces and new ideas, Republicans are simply pushing them away.