Wednesday, March 14, 2012

Santorum Wins South, Still Loses in Delegates

Photo: Reuters
After winning two Southern primaries yesterday, former Pennsylvania Senator Rick Santorum said in his victory speech, "We did it again!"

Yes you did, Senator. You scored a public relations victory and received the lion's share of mainstream media attention, but you actually managed to lose the delegate tally for the day.

Santorum did indeed sweep the South yesterday, winning both the Alabama and Mississippi primaries, but thanks to the fancy math of delegate apportionment in those states and two less publicized Pacific primary races, Mitt Romney actually extended his lead in the total delegate count.

Romney failed to win either Southern primary, but he finished just 3% behind Santorum in Mississippi and only 6% behind in Alabama. When delegates from those states are split among the candidates, and you add in delegates from late night results reported from contests in Hawaii and American Samoa, both handily won by Romney, the former Massachusetts Governor actually added about a half dozen more delegates to his total than Santorum did.

Santorum got the press and whatever campaign contribution boosts that might bring, but Romney won the day and moved closer to earning the nomination at the Republican convention this August. The frontrunner may have lost the 24-hour news cycle battle, but he won the delegate war, and in the end, Romney's strategy and organization will win out over Santorum's perceived conservative sincerity.

With Newt Gingrich playing spoiler and vowing to stay in the race until the end, and with Santorum "victory days" like Tuesday, it will only be a matter of weeks before Mitt Romney wins the Republican presidential primary race.

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